One of the advantages of writing a blog is to be able to understand
what I was thinking (or not thinking) at a certain point in time. It can be satisfying, or amusing, or downright
embarrassing looking back. We are all adrift in an ocean of information, the
seas fomenting more than ever, that affecting our perception of the horizon,
when we can see it at all. Sometimes, the
headlines of the Wall Street Journal
seem to cry out a general national Zeitgeist and this weekend's edition was
such a moment. I've noted this phenomenon
before, first on Wednesday, December 10, 2008, Anecdotal Headline Annotations, which I prefaced with a sentence that could exactly apply
to the most recent edition, three and a half years later: If I was handed a copy of today’s Wall Street Journal only a couple of
years ago, I would have thought the headlines were a forecast of an ethical and
economic Armageddon. How otherwise does one interpret the following captions,
from just one day’s newspaper?
Then, a little more than two years ago, Friday, April 9,
2010, I posted another such moment, Anecdotal Headlines, writing at the time: ...while the Dow basks in the glow of massive liquidity injections in a
low interest rate environment, approaching 11,000 as I write this, and
investment bankers are rewarding themselves with record bonuses, the economy
swims on against the tide of high unemployment (much higher than reported),
kicking the state/municipal finance crisis down the road, and rising
foreclosures
Usually, extreme headlines happen at inflection
points. Certainly the Dec. 2008 posting
was one as far as the stock market is concerned (the Dow bottoming three months
later), but the April 2010 posting was during the market's ascent. However, the
so called "market" seems to be disconnected from the economy and jobs and whatever
recovery there has been of Main Street mostly has been induced by the Federal Reserve and
other government stimuli. Some like to
finger point, believing that recent deficit spending is the cause of our
economic malaise. I don't like deficit
spending any more than they, but it is overly simplistic to think that if we
ran our government like a responsible family, sitting around the ole' kitchen
table, budgeting our expenses, tightening our belts, all will be OK. Running a country is not like running a
household, and without the stimulus, who knows where we would be today.
We are going to hear a lot about the economy, everything
being Obama's fault (note now that gas prices have fallen in the last few weeks we no longer hear
about his being responsible for those) but another benefit (there are not many)
of writing this blog is some of the documentation it provides. The Monday,
September 22, 2008 entry, This Fundamental is Whining
is worth revisiting in this regard. Senator Phil Gramm, who had then become a
lead economic adviser for McCain’s presidential run, called us (the American
public) "a bunch of whiners," saying the only economic problem we
have is a "mental recession."
Well we now know that this little "mental recession" was real,
could have been a depression (who knows, it still might become one), and it was
set in motion long before Obama took office.
Nonetheless, at the time McCain was already blaming Obama for the
economy, saying “We've heard a lot of words from Senator Obama over the course
of this campaign…But maybe just this once he could spare us the lectures, and
admit to his own poor judgment in contributing to these problems. The crisis on
Wall Street started in the Washington culture of lobbying and influence
peddling, and he was right square in the middle of it." Obama was to blame even before he became
president! And today, we not only have
the residual effects of our own economic problems baked into the cake, there is
also the exogenous factor of Europe's slow-motion economic collapse --
something we have no direct ability to control, even if we could agree on
anything. Then, there is the sun-setting
of the Bush tax cuts, a fiscal cliff that desperately needs our malfunctioning
government to agree on something. What are the chances?
Unfortunately, presidential elections do focus on how
people feel at the time, and while we were feeling lousy in 2008 and
"hope" was a mantra we eagerly seized, now we will be asked to
"hope" some more, or rely on the magic wand of a private equity
bailout specialist, Mitt Romney. It is a nice fantasy
(the magic wand), and as the Federal Reserve may be running out of its own
magic bullets, the economy and the leading economic indicators will dictate the
election, no matter how much tinder the Super Pacs throw on the campaign fires.
The headlines of today are not much different in tone than
those that preceded them, two years ago, and almost four years ago. Two of my favorites
from 2010 are: Greek Bond Crisis Spreads
and Fed
Chiefs Hint at Low Rates Possibly Into 2011. Where is Yogi Berra when you need him? "It's deja vu all over again." But he might have got it wrong with, "The
future ain't what it used to be."
So, how are we to divine our economic and moral future
from today's headlines (presented in the order as they appear, just from the
first section of the Wall Street
Journal June 2/3 2012)?.....
Grim Job Report Sinks Markets
Feeble hiring by
U.S. employers in May roiled markets and dimmed the already-cloudy outlook for
an economy that appears to be following Europe and Asia into a slowdown
As Costs Soar, Taxpayers Target Pensions of
Cops and Firefighters
Edwards Jury Saw Guilt, but Lack of Proof
State Takes Fresh Crack at Mortgages
Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac will participate in a Nevada program to cut loan balances for
certain homeowners who are current on their mortgages but owe more than their
houses are worth in what could be a model for other hard-hit states.
Big Scandal for Small Town
Sunland Park, N.M.
sees Mayor-elect indicted amid host of lurid allegations.
Sen. Kirk Of Illinois Pushed Coin Bills
Sen. Mark Kirk of
Illinois pushed for legislation authorizing a collectible coin that generated
$2.5 million for an organization that had hired a firm that employed his former
girlfriend to lobby for the bill, according to people involved in the matter.
Campaign's Focus Turns to Grim Data
Friday's
weaker-than-expected jobs report quickly became the central focus of the
presidential campaign, with President Barack Obama seeking to mitigate the
political fallout and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney trying to
seize on the disappointing numbers.
Fed is Sure to Step Up Debate on More
Stimulus
Friday's dismal
jobs report is sure to sharpen a debate at the Federal Reserve about whether to
take new actions to spur economic growth, but it likely doesn't settle it.
Euro-Zone Reports Deepen Gloom
Block sets record
in number of Jobless as manufacturing activity falls; figures highlight
widening North-South divide.
Asia Weakness Heightens Fears of Contagion
Manufacturing
activity in China and across a wide swath of Asia slowed in May, heightening
fears that the turmoil in Western economies is dragging down one of the few
remaining engines of global growth.
Brazil Loses Steam As World Slows
Brazil grew at its
slowest pace in more than two years during the first quarter as weak industrial
production and a weakening global picture undermined Latin America's largest
economy.
Cyprus Is Close to a Request for Bailout
Cyprus looks
increasingly set to become the fourth euro-zone country to seek financial aid
under Europe's temporary bailout fund, as early as this month, as it scrambles
to protect its banking system from Greece's widening financial crisis that is
threatening to engulf its tiny island neighbor.
Japan Gives Warning on Yen
The Japanese government
went on high alert against the newly rising yen Friday, trying to scare off
global investors with multiple threats of intervention in currency markets, but
stopping short of direct action to drive the yen down.
