PAC Politics

"Stay tuned, but now a word from the sponsor" --- the despicable political advertising condoned by the Supreme Court. The Founding Fathers obviously anticipated ungodly sums of money being raised by corporations and unions for political PACs so elections can be bought and sold by these "people" whose first amendment rights would otherwise be violated. Or at least I guess that is the Court's interpretation.

And to think we are just seeing the tip of the Super PAC iceberg in this Presidential election cycle. The Republican primaries are appalling enough (both in terms of content and political advertising). Just wait until the REAL election gets underway.

The American electorate is electronic media addicted; broadcast emails, streaming video, Tweets, YouTube, network and cable TV. Outside sleep and work, "video consumption" is the #1 activity, or, if written, preferably 140 characters or less please. Robocalls are part of the political media bombardment. Sound bites over substance.

When motivational research was being pioneered by the likes of Ernest Dichter and James Vicary in the 1950s and popularized by Vance Packard in his Hidden Persuaders, little did they know that some of those principles would become part of a giant advertising machine aimed at buying elections. Advertising 101: sell the emotion, not the pragmatic benefit of the product.

And, so in this political season, we're selling religion, and all the emotions that are attached to the same (and in a negative way, not the way it was used in WW II advertising to spur solidarity and sacrifice):

But the real selling job is just getting underway. Sell fear. Just wait until the Super P's roll out their shadowy images of their opponent bathed in a light to look like Jack the Ripper.

The firestorm unleashed by the misogynist "entertainer" Rush Limbaugh regarding Sandra Fluke's testimony to Congress fits the bill as well. Talk show radio is just another media circus of highly charged emotional invectives. This elaborate infomercial is then recycled on the Internet, passing for fact. No sense commenting on vile Limbaugh as the definitive word was posted by Jim Wright over at Stonekettle Station in his recent The Absurdity of Rush Limbaugh. But while Limbaugh's blather has led to some lost advertisers (probably temporarily), the Gingrich "Winning our Future" Super PAC signed on for more advertising! Way to go to win our future!

It is no wonder that a society that consumes movies that are more computer animated than acted, and cannot live without 24/7 video is a perfect target for Super PAC persuasion. Just fork over the bucks and try to buy an election! Sanctioned by the Supreme Court, the same folks who "sponsored" the results of the 2000 presidential election.

Watson/HAL, Come Here

How prescient, 2001: A Space Odyssey, the 1968 film written by Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick who was also the film's director. Clarke is one of my favorite Sci-Fi writers along with Isaac Asimov with whom I did some work on a series of reprints of science fiction classics.

I remember seeing the film when it opened, thinking "2001" an eternity from now. Man had not yet landed on the moon, there were no personal computers, cell phones, color TVs were just becoming mainstream, and "twitter" was merely a light silly laugh.

Yet Clarke and Asimov saw the future and with "Watson's" performance on Jeopardy, that future has arrived. It was Asimov who once said: "I do not fear computers. I fear the lack of them." But should we?

As "rational" human beings we have been perplexed by Watson's answer to the question under the category of US Cities, coming up with "Toronto???" instead of Chicago (which the two all-star Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter Jeopardy challengers knew). How could it come up with a city in Canada?

David Ferrucci, the manager of the Watson project at IBM Research, comes up with the rational explanation:

First, the category names on Jeopardy! are tricky. The answers often do not exactly fit the category. Watson, in his training phase, learned that categories only weakly suggest the kind of answer that is expected, and, therefore, the machine downgrades their significance. The way the language was parsed provided an advantage for the humans and a disadvantage for Watson, as well. “What US city” wasn’t in the question. If it had been, Watson would have given US cities much more weight as it searched for the answer. Adding to the confusion for Watson, there are cities named Toronto in the United States and the Toronto in Canada has an American League baseball team. It probably picked up those facts from the written material it has digested. Also, the machine didn’t find much evidence to connect either city’s airport to World War II. (Chicago was a very close second on Watson’s list of possible answers.) So this is just one of those situations that’s a snap for a reasonably knowledgeable human but a true brain teaser for the machine

While getting the answer wrong, Watson playfully bet $947, knowing it had a large lead and losing that amount it would still likely win.

But I hearken back to the movie and Watson's prototype, HAL 9000, and his "interview" with the BBC:

BBC Interviewer: HAL, you have an enormous responsibility on this mission, in many ways perhaps the greatest responsibility of any single mission element. You're the brain and central nervous system of the ship, and your responsibilities include watching over the men in hibernation. Does this ever cause you any lack of confidence?
HAL: Let me put it this way, Mr. Amor. The 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.

And yet after killing the crew, Dave only remaining, HAL admits: Look, Dave, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you. He made "poor decisions" and has "enthusiasm?" But no computer "has ever made a mistake or distorted information."

Putting on my Sci-Fi hat, I would like to think that Watson's "Toronto???" might be a very human "in-your-face-I've-got-you-beat" answer. As further evidence, Watson's meager $947 bet.

HAL: Dave, stop. Stop, will you? Stop, Dave. Will you stop, Dave? Stop, Dave. I'm afraid. I'm afraid, Dave. Dave, my mind is going. I can feel it. I can feel it. My mind is going. There is no question about it. I can feel it. I can feel it. I can feel it. I'm a…fraid. Good afternoon, gentlemen. I am a HAL 9000 computer. I became operational at the H.A.L. plant in Urbana, Illinois on the 12th of January 1992. My instructor was Mr. Langley, and he taught me to sing a song. If you'd like to hear it, I can sing it for you.
Dave: Yes, I'd like to hear it, HAL. Sing it for me.
HAL: It's called "Daisy". [sings while slowing down] Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer, do. I'm half crazy, all for the love of you. It won't be a stylish marriage. I can't afford a carriage. But you'll look sweet upon the seat of a bicycle built for two

But I agree with Ken Jennings: "I for one welcome our new computer overlords,” provided we keep the upper hand! "Daisy, Daisy...."

We're On a Crazy Carousel

The passage of still another year reminds me of Jacquel Brel's brilliant waltz from the late 1960's musical review: Jacques Brel Is Alive and Well and Living in Paris. It is a song that begins slowly, sanely, gathering tempo as it culminates breathlessly at the end. I was playing that song during the anticlimax of Y2K.

We're on a carousel / A crazy carousel / And now we go around / Again we go around / And now we spin around / We're high above the ground / And down again around / And up again around / So high above the ground / We feel we've got to yell / We're on a carousel / A crazy carousel

My "blogger friend" Mark over at Fund My Mutual Fund, whom I've referenced before in these virtual pages, has been writing, strategizing, constantly working towards the goal of starting his own mutual fund. He is pursuing the golden ring on this carousel of life, following his dream, and this year he will finally realize it. His New Year's message revealed many of the details that led to this culminating moment and I applaud him for his tenacity.

Decades earlier, like Mark, I followed my own dream, carving out a niche in the publishing world, one that fascinates me to this day, but at one time in my life I had considered a career change and perhaps if the Internet existed then, I might have followed a different path. It wasn't that I had a falling out with my interest in publishing, but I too had become enamored by "the markets" and fancied myself an "investor."

My interest started out by investing in some of the Nifty Fifty ( many of which crashed and burned under their own overvalued weight in the poor economic, high inflationary years of the 1970's), and then with the help of VisiCalc (the precursor of Lotus 1-2-3, in turn the precursor of Excel) and my first computer (an Apple II), came up with what I thought was a "bullet proof" system of investing in convertible debentures. I even marketed a VisiCalc template ("Converticalc") to analyze them. Well, as we all sooner or later recognize, there is no infallible system, and making investing an avocation can be as dangerous as being your own surgeon, so now I rely on people like Mark and, I am not ashamed to admit (in this era of "fast money"), I'm also a buy-and-holder, investing in selected dividend aristocrats selling at reasonable price/earnings to growth ratios. But Mark's New Year's message reminds me that things might have turned out differently if I followed my other dream to its logical conclusion.

The program drew interest at the time and there was even some discussion with a major brokerage house about starting a mutual fund based on it. By today's computer standards the program is laughable, but mind you this was nearly thirty years ago. A new publication, Financial & Investment Software Review, which was dedicated to "microcomputerized investing" carried my article on investing in "converts" in its Summer, 1983 issue. I wish I could just give a link to the article, but I have to paste it below in its entity as it doesn't exist anywhere on the Web. Actually, the concepts haven't changed that much -- as far as straight investing in Convertibles is concerned -- but the nature of these instruments have changed with the advent of computer driven arbitrage. They are not for the faint of heart.

So, this is now water under the proverbial bridge for me, but things could have turned out differently if my interest in investing finally outweighed my passion for the publishing business. Follow your dream in 2011 and watch for the launch of Mark's "Paladin Long-Short Fund."

Evaluating Convertible Debentures by Robert Hagelstein (Financial & Investment Software Review, Summer, 1983, Volume 1, No. 3)

Convertible debentures are an unusual investment opportunity but largely have been overlooked because of the complexities in evaluating them and because of the relative illiquidity of the marketplace. During the last several years, however, convertible debentures have been issued by a growing number of companies and in larger numbers, significantly improving their liquidity. This factor, in combination with the widespread availability of the microcomputer for analysis, makes convertible debentures suitable for most portfolios. Much of the following discussion of convertibles has been adapted from the manual that accompanies CONVERTICALC , a VISICALC® template that was developed for the evaluation of convertible debentures.

Convertible debentures are debt instruments that are convertible into common stock. They share the most attractive aspects of both kinds of investments, the appreciation prospects of equity with the high current income of a bond. In addition, the debt characteristic of the convertible creates an investment floor, a point at which the convertible will not decline, even if, theoretically, the common declines to nearly no value (assuming bankruptcy is not the cause of the decline).

Despite the focus on convertible debentures in this article, there are also convertible preferred issues that may be of interest to the investor. A drawback to this convertible security is preferred stock has no maturity date at which time one can expect to receive par value for the investment. Nonetheless, many of the evaluation techniques discussed below can be applied to these convertibles should the investor wish to include such issues in an investment portfolio.

Corporations issue convertible bonds as an inexpensive means of raising capital. In effect, a convertible offering is an equity offering in the future, allowing the corporation to issue a debt instrument with a coupon rate much lower than prevailing rates. Until recently, convertibles were mostly the exclusive province of corporations with lower debt ratings. Persistent high interest rates have changed this; even Kodak and IBM have issued or filed to issue convertible securities.

There are several publications that follow convertible debentures, each providing essential information needed to evaluate them: the number of shares into which each debenture is convertible (the "conversion ratio"), the coupon and maturity date, the quality rating as a debt issue, the amount of debentures outstanding, and the identification of the issuer and the issue into which it is convertible (some are convertible into the common stock of companies other that that of the issuer). These publications include Standard & Poor's Bond Guide, Moody's Bond Record, and the Value Line Convertibles Service. They also provide some of the computations used to analyze convertibles, particularly Value Line.

SOFTWARE PROGRAM
CONVERTICALC not only gives the critical formulas for evaluating convertibles, but it also provides the data on approximately one-hundred of the most actively traded issues on the NYSE and AMEX exchanges. The user can add or substitute other issues, replicating the evaluation formulas.

Nevertheless, there is no computer program that can forecast the direction of security prices. There are a host of intangibles affecting investors' perceptions of value, many of these relating to investor psychology rather than to fundamental values. CONVERTICALC is intended to be an investment aid and does not offer any prescribed buy/sell decisions, It endeavors to supply information to evaluate convertible debentures in relation to one another and in relation to the underlying common stock.

As convertible debentures can be exchanged into the underlying common stock, at the option of the holder, the appreciation prospects of the common is crucial to evaluating its corresponding convertible, Traders convinced that the common will move substantially higher within a short period of time, are normally better off buying the common than the convertible. Longer term investors, particularly conservative ones to whom current income is important, may find the convertible to be the better choice. In both cases, however, the first step in making a buy decision is determining whether the common stock is desirable.

Convertibles selling at a large discount from par may be especially attractive to long-term investors. Such issues enable one to "lock" into a virtually guaranteed capital gain, even if the underlying common stock should fail to appreciate during the period. Another consideration is the convertible's bid and asked price. This spread will normally be small for issues actively traded on the NYSE or AMEX. It can be considerable for issues with a relatively small float and for those traded over-the-counter.

Most convertible are "callable" by the issuer, requiring the holder to either sell at the call price or convert into common stock. It is not unusual for convertibles to be called once the issue is selling at substantially more than par. Usually, convertibles are callable at prices higher than par during the first few years after issuance, declining to par as the date of maturity approaches. Many are callable at par long before maturity. For this reason Moody's Bond Record is an invaluable companion for investors considering buying convertibles: current call terms are specified.

CONVERSION PREMIUM
A key element in evaluating convertibles is the issue's "conversion premium." This premium represents the percentage at which the convertible is selling over its "conversion value" (the number of shares into which one debenture is convertible multiplied by the current price of the common stock). The lower the premium, the more likely the convertible will move in relation to the underlying common stock while the higher the premium the more likely the convertible will move in relation to interest rates. Convertibles with low premiums, having relatively high yields and fast "payback" periods (see below), are generally the best buys (if, of course, the common stock merits a buy). Such convertibles will appreciate with the common stock and provide greater yields than the common stock, giving the investor the best of two worlds: capital gains and lower downside risk.

As the conversion premium is intrinsic to evaluating convertible values, the CONVERTICALC disk includes a section sorted by conversion premium. Generally, those convertibles carrying premiums of less than 5% will follow nearly all of the underlying common stock's rise. However, some of these same issues may be equally vulnerable to a substantial decline of the common while others may follow only half the common's decline. The potential magnitude of a convertible's downside risk relates to its yield in relation to those paid by non-convertibles of similar quality. Obviously, convertibles with yields to maturity approaching those prevailing for straight debt issues that would decline the least even if the underlying common stock should decline (see the discussion of the "investment premium" below).

It is possible to quantify the potential price relationship between an underlying common stock and a convertible debenture, plotting what is known as the "convertible curve" on a x/y axis graph. An awareness, however, of a convertible's conversion and investment premiums generally obviates the need to maintain such graphs.
Then, there is the concept of "payback period," the amount of time it will take to recover the conversion premium from the additional yield provided by the convertible over the common stock, This is important when considering whether one buys the convertible or the underlying common, When a convertible has a relatively long payback period and the premium is not excessive the common stock yields nearly the same as the convertible. If the dividend is relatively secure, the common stock may be a better value than the convertible,

INVESTMENT PREMIUM
The concept of "investment premium" can be as important to one's investment decision as the conversion premium, The former represents the percentage a convertible debenture is selling above its investment value (as if it is devoid of its convertibility feature). In order to ascertain this percentage, it is necessary to identify the debt quality of the convertible being considered. Access to Moody's or Standard & Poor's bond publications will provide a bond rating for the issue, For this reason, it is necessary for the investor to know the yield to maturity of the convertible being considered. Even if the investor is not looking for high current yield, yield to maturity is the basis for comparing convertible to straight bonds, CONVERTICALC provides an approximate yield to maturity calculation.

Quantifying the investment premium is a method of judging the potential "floor" for the price of a convertible, a means of establishing the magnitude of the investment risk, A convertible with virtually no investment premium is selling at its investment value. Such issues are more likely to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than movement of the underlying common stock This is also a characteristic of convertibles with high conversion premiums. Therefore, generally, the investment premium and the conversion premium will tend to be the reciprocal of the other, high investment premiums following low conversion premiums and vice versa, Sometimes one can find convertibles with relatively low investment AND conversion premiums, These are the undervalued issues that should be sought by the investor; they have nearly the same upside potential as the common stock with very little downside risk if the common stock should decline (assuming static interest rates).

The investment premium may be quantified by using a hand-held calculator or the remaining memory available on the VISICALC matrix. After the bond rating for the convertible issue being evaluated has been ascertained, and the prevailing yield for equivalent non-convertible debt issues has been established, a bond table would reveal at what price the convertible would have to sell to yield the prevailing rate. Then, by subtracting the current price from the price at which it would have to sell to yield the prevailing rate and dividing the remainder by the current price, the investment premium can be calculated. Common sense can generally substitute for an actual calculation. In comparing a number of convertibles chosen on the basis of relatively low conversion premiums, ones of roughly the same investment grade, those with the highest yields to maturity have the lowest investment premiums.

Convertibles should not only be analyzed against one another and against the underlying common stock; they should also be evaluated against themselves over a period of time. Maintaining a file on a regular basis and recording changes in the key convertible evaluation components - conversion premium, yield, and payback period - enables the investor to "plot" bands of values. Market volatility, earnings growth, interest rate movements will profoundly affect these statistics. By observing these movements as computed by CONVERTICALC, the investor can decide when the common is overpriced in relation to the convertible or vice versa. One may want to sell a convertible whose conversion and investment premiums have become too excessive and switch into one with lower premiums and/or a higher yield. By observing diligent portfolio management the investor can maximize return and minimize risk.
"Evaluating Convertible Debentures" © 1983 by Robert Hagelstein. CONVERTICALC, is a VISICALC® template formatted for 64 K APPLE II® DOS 3.3. APPLE® is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc. VISICALC® is a registered trademark of VISICORP''.

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Rediscovered BVI Log

Before the WWW there was The Source and then CompuServe. In the 1980’s I thought it a miracle, being able to “connect” via telephone dial-up at 300 baud on my Apple II and send messages to other users and to join moderated Forums. One such forum was devoted to boating and after my family, with friends, chartered a boat in the British Virgin Islands, I posted a log of our journey and it became one of the most downloaded files on the forum. It seems, now, so techno-archaic, but I will never forget being in awe of the possibilities of such technology and the pleasure of sharing one of my favorite boating adventures with what constituted the beginnings of the WWW.

As that “upload” has long been lost with the disappearance of CompuServe, I post it below having rediscovered it in the depths of my old files and with the help of a scanner. While the boat charter company and some of the references may be gone, the BVIs remain the ideal territory for bare boat and crewed charters. We navigated those waters before there were GPS’s, using only compass readings and printed charts. Today, it must be even less demanding.
We chartered a Grand Banks trawler in Feb. 1989 with our best friends, Ray and Sue, and the nice part of the story, is we still remain close friends to this day although we have geographically moved on in our retirement years. We now live in Florida and they live year round on a boat, visiting us on their way to their annual trip to the Bahamas.

The BVI cruise was one that had so many wonderful memories but in digitizing photographs from the past, I was dismayed to discover most of the good pictures I had taken were lost. Those that remain fail to capture the unique nature of the trip, but there is always the log…..


February 1989
BVI Cruise

So, here we are, actually on our way to the Virgin Islands to pick up a bareboat charter. We discussed this-dream for years and, finally, this past fall we decided to do it. Although we have boated together for years, Ann and I on our 37' boat, 'Swept Away', and Ray and Sue on their 38' 'Rascel', both powerboats, with some apprehension we planned this trip. It is one thing to boat together and another to do it on the same boat, especially with two 12-year old boys --their son, Ray, and ours, Jonathan --and their 16-year old daughter, Liz. However, we carefully planned the trip, choosing a highly recommended bareboat organization, La Vida in St. Thomas, and a slow, but roomy trawler, a 42' Grand Banks. Perhaps a log will reveal the outcome

Day 1 --Friday, February 10
We arrive at La Vida Marina, located at the north end of Jersey Bay on the eastern end of St. Thomas at about 11:00 am. There we pick up the yacht that will serve as our home for the next week, the 'Soft Shoalders', a 42' Grand Banks, which was commissioned in 1985. 2000 hours are on her well-maintained twin 120 Ford Lehman diesels and nearly 5000 hours on the 8 kW Westerbeke generator. At 22 tons, she can carry 600 gallons of fuel and 350 gallons of fresh water in 4 tanks. Her homeport is Boston, Ma. Given the year she was built, and the number of hours on her, we guess she may be retired from chartering at the end of the year.

Although we are scheduled to depart at 12:00 noon, a delay is necessary as the provisioning is inadequate (seven small pieces of chicken for a dinner, indeed). La Vida agrees to shop for additional food and furnish it within an hour. In the meantime, we stow our gear; Ray and Sue take the generous-size vee berth, Liz the side cabin, the boys the salon, and we the commodious aft cabin. We are impressed by the storage facilities --more than adequate for the seven of us plus provisions for the week. The 42' Grand Banks carries a top-loading freezer and refrigerator. The inconvenience of access is more than offset by their roominess and operating efficiencies.

Finally, at about 1:30 PM, we cast-off our lines and make our way to what we have decided will be our first destination, Christmas Cove. This cove is a favorite first night stop for charters out of St. Thomas as it is the first anchorage to the east, and it affords excellent protection from the prevailing easterly trade winds, accompanied by the omnipresent winter ground swells.

Due to the limited maneuvering space at the marina, one La Vida employee brings the yacht into the channel while another trails us in a dingy (to pick up our guide and to give us our dingy an 11' Zodiac with a 8 hp Mariner engine).

Once out of the marina and into the channel, we take over. The day is typical for this time of the year –partly cloudy, but with more sun than clouds. Although the sun is intense, the 15- 20-knot easterly breeze quickly cools the skin.

The channel is narrow, and coral shoals complicate the entrance into Jersey Bay. However, as bottom can be seen even at 30', and the color of the water is a fairly clear indication of depth, there is no danger. Soon we encounter Grassy Cay, keeping it to our port. Beautiful white Egrets populate this small island, watching our departure. After passing Grassy Cay, Rotto Cay appears on our port and, after leaving this behind us and passing between Cas Cay and Coculus Rocks, we set an easterly course for St. James Island, only about a mile from Jersey Bay. Christmas Cove awaits us in the lee of Great St. James Island; at about 2:15 we arrive at our destination. Great St. James is the northern most island in a small chain lying east south east of St. Thomas. Below it are the smaller Little St James Island and Dog Island. These are mostly uninhabited.

There are two anchorages in Christmas Cove, one north of Fish Cay, a tiny island some 100 yards from shore, and the other one south. As the breeze is coming off the island, and there is no reason to expect the direction to change, we will drop our hooks close to the island. The boat 1s equipped with two types of anchors –a Danforth and a Bruce. Each has about 15' of chain, and there is a windless to handle both rope and chain. As many of the anchorages in the BVIs are coral, this redundancy is advisable. We first drop the Bruce and then the boys dinghy out the Danforth at about a 45-degree angle from the Bruce. These settle in about 25' of water (only some 100' from shore) and about 4:1 scope is let out. The boat gently settles back midway between Great St. James and Fish Cay, but slightly north of the latter.

After a fast lunch, we are ready to do our first snorkeling. Soon, we are exploring the northwestern portion of the shore, marveling at the varied fish life and the interesting coral/rock formations. Before long, we return to the boat for cocktails and, soon, dinner. The sunset is beautiful, but not as spectacular as the ones we have witnessed at our usual cruising grounds, the Long Island Sound. We speculate that as the air is devoid of pollutants here, the sun is not reflected by foreign particles. The wind gradually drops, and everyone has a restful night.

Day 2 --Saturday, February 11
After breakfast and a morning swim, Ray and I determine our itinerary for the day, a lunch stop at the famed Caneel Bay and then on to Francis Bay for the afternoon and the night. Both destinations lie on the northern coast of St. John, the last American Virgin Island in the chain of St. Croix (to the South) and St. Thomas (to the West). While Caneel Bay is a good day anchorage, the northern ground swells and the traffic in the Windward Passage can make it untenable for an overnight; thus our decision to proceed to Francis Bay for the night.

Caneel Bay is about 4 miles northeast of Christmas Cove. Leaving the cove we enter Current Cut where we have a choice of passing either east or west of Current Island sitting in the middle of the Cut. This is a heavily traveled passage, including larger pleasure vessels and high speed ferries passing between St. Thomas, St. John and Tortola. A fairly strong current swirls around the islands here. Once through the Cut we enter Pillsbury Sound that runs Southeast/Northwest between St. Thomas and St. John. Beyond islands at the northern portion of the Sound, Lovango Cay, Grass Cay, and Congo Cay, we can see the 1000' peaks of Jost Van Dyke, some 9-10 miles in the distance. Again, the prevailing easterly trade winds have picked up to 15-20 knots, with higher gusts at times. The sun, when not partially obliterated by the passing clouds, creates a constant white heat.

Although in the lee of Hawksnest Pt., which borders Caneel Bay to the East, the seas become choppier as we pass between Two Brothers and the entrance to Cruz Bay. However, while our displacement hull bobs, it easily handles these seas. As we approach Caneel Bay, two anchorages are evident. One is at the entrance to the resort at Caneel Bay where there is a ferry dock. It seems to-be more prudent to anchor around Durloe Pt., a small protrusion midway at Hawksnest Pt. where there is still protection from the easterly breeze but where we are away from the traffic. After anchoring, we pile into our dinghy to explore the magnificent Rockefeller resort at Caneel Bay. This was built where an l8th century sugar mill once had been active. It now serves as a restaurant open to yachtsmen and resort guests alike. We tie up opposite the ferry where a guide who asks us to register to enter the resort greets us. We begin to tour the grounds, and, as one of our children strays onto a lawn, we are admonished by another guide to stay on the trails. As she explains, visiting yachtsmen do not enjoy the best reputations. It turns out this guide had lived in Connecticut, maintaining a boat on the Five Mile River in Rowayton --a small world indeed!

The plantings here are spectacular. Unlike what we have seen thus far, it looks more like Hawaii than the BVIs. A complimentary tram takes us to the nooks and crannies of the resort; we soon see why this is a stop not to be missed.

Returning to our boat, we have lunch and then snorkel at the tip of Hawksnest Point. This is somewhat difficult because we are not allowed to anchor our dinghy off the beach or bring it ashore. Thus, we leave it at the rocks where the water is somewhat rough, making getting in and out of and aboard the dinghy difficult. Nevertheless, the rocks provide excellent snorkeling. In the early afternoon we begin the next leg of the trip to Francis Bay, an easy 3 mile run from Caneel Bay.

Francis Bay is the better overnight anchorage as it is protected from the north as well as the east. It is a large bay with several possible anchorages. After leaving Caneel Bay we have the choice of entering Windward Passage or hugging the shore of St. John. The latter has to be done with some care as coral reefs abound. We decide to stay near shore and have little difficulty navigating along this route.

Approaching Francis Bay we at first try the innermost anchorage, which seems to be the least crowded and, seemingly, the most desirable. Here we have our most unsettling experience of the entire trip and learn why this choice anchorage is shunned. There is a native home with lush tropical plantings near the shore. As we drop anchor, a woman runs to the beach, wildly screaming.

At first we think we have committed something horrendous, such as dropping our anchor on what-is understood to be an underwater national park (there are several off of St. John). Finally, the wild screams become decipherable, "Get away from this woman's island." No doubt visiting yachtsman had subjected this person to some less than considerate treatment in the past. Rather than listening to her ranting --even though we are entitled to anchor where we chose --we decide to move on to another part of the bay.

As it turns out, our final destination is a fairly good choice as the Park’s service maintains garbage collection facilities. After more than 24 hours on the boat, the accumulated garbage from seven people make the northern part of the anchorage the right place and this the right time to take care of business. Also, slightly to the south is a primitive resort (with canvas over wood-framed huts), which has --as one guest put it --"a seven eleven" type general store. Although we are fully provisioned, a few extras come to mind, and we climb some 200 to 300 feet to reach the store.

In the late afternoon sun, we swim and Ray windsurfs in the gradually dying breeze, settling down to dinner and, then, sleep with, again, the security of the two anchors holding us fast.

Day 3 --Sunday, February 12
This day is intended to be a traveling and customs day, as we have decided to leave the American Virgins and enter the British Virgin Islands. Before the trip we heard that Jost Van Dyke was the best place to clear Immigration and Customs but shortly before departing it was decided to go to Sopers Hole on the western-most portion of Tortola. La Vida, however, advised us to clear at the newly established Customs port of Nanny Cay, on the southern shore of Tortola, right before Road Town, the main harbor in the BVIs. We did not intend to do this on a Sunday, as there are overtime fees involved, but the guidebook with which we were provided was equivocal on this, distinguishing "normal" hours from "extended" hours (we would clear during this category) and "overtime" hours. So we got an early start from Francis Bay to reach Nanny Cay so we could press on to our ultimate destination for the night, Marina Cay, which lies between Beef Island and Great Camanoe Island off the eastern tip of Tortola.

Leaving Francis Bay we pass between the northern most part of St. John and Whistling Cay on which stands the ruins of an old customs house. There we enter the Narrows, turning east into the wind, which seems to be somewhat stronger than in recent days. We pass Sopers Hole on the port, which we can see, between Little Thatch Island and Frenchman's Cay. Some of these islands are difficult to distinguish from one another, as their volcanic elevations tend to make them appear to merge. Once past Frenchman's Cay on our port, we enter Sir Francis Drake Channel, the main body of water, which is surrounded by the British Virgin Islands. The entire run to Nanny Cay is only some seven miles, but in an eight-knot boat, with a head wind, we inch our way there.

The approach to Nanny Cay is straightforward and once inside the marina the first dock is open, making it easy to tie up. We gather our passports and birth certificates and make our way to Customs. Only one attendant is on duty, and since no one else is there to be processed, we are confident we will be expedited --confident, however, until we are presented with the forms (the ship's Manifest, the Passenger list, etc.). Once completing these formalities, however, we learn that --for the day at least --we can only complete Immigration proceedings at Nanny Cay. We will still have to go through Customs at Road Town. Thus, an unexpected stop is put on our itinerary, one we had originally wanted to avoid (as this is the main harbor in Tortola). Nevertheless, before the trip we had charted our entrance into the harbor as the Village Cay Marina there gave us the option of taking on fuel or water if necessary.

So we are now off to Road Town, an easy two mile run to the northeast. The harbor is well marked and, fortunately, there is dockage space at the customs house. Here we are told that one person can act as Captain and complete the necessary paperwork without everyone having to appear. One customs agent is on duty; again, no other travelers are present. This friendly government official inquires whether I like basketball and what university I attended. While the endless paperwork is being completed, we talk basketball.

Had it been Monday, he tells me that there could have been several hours' wait. In spite of additional expenses, again our timing is right. Some $150 poorer --fees to cover four days for seven people, the boat fee, taxes, and, yes the "overtime" fee {even though we were there during "extended" hours) -–we decide to proceed to Village Cay Marina, only a few hundred yards north, to top off our water tanks and obtain some provisions.

This is a fortunate decision. No sooner after arriving, a vicious squall hits, packing winds of up to 35 knots, with a driving rain. This, however, blows by after some 15 minutes, and the blazing sun once again fills the sky. While the gals go to the shops, we top off our water tanks (98 gallons @10 cents per gallon) and sit on the bridge admiring a new 110' yacht 'Thunderball' abeam our starboard. Luckily, a deck hand is at work so we are able to find out she carries two 3500 hp turbo charged, water-jet engines which propels her to a top speed of 46 knots!

Having completed our chores and eaten lunch, we leave Road Town and make our way to Marina Cay, some 9-10 additional miles to the northeast. It is still the early afternoon so we are confident we will reach our destination in time for snorkeling, which is considered to be excellent in this area.

The Marina Cay anchorage is in the lee of the island and is bordered by Scrub Island to the North, Great Camanoe to the West, and Beef Island to the South. Here we pick up a mooring maintained by the Moor-Secure organization which has moorings at various points in the BVls. Unlike prior afternoons, this day seems more unsettled, with more clouds and winds unlikely to abate. Given the limited amount of space at this anchorage, a mooring ($10) seems to be a good idea.

We immediately make preparations for a long dingy ride (almost a mile) to explore a reef off of the northeast portion of Great Camanoe. Here the weather begins to gradually turn, with even more clouds and wind. We anchor the dingy in the lee of the reef, and while some explore the inner area, which is calmer, the more adventurous go to the rougher outer reef. While the entire snorkeling area is among the best we have encountered thus far, the outer reef, with its severe drop into more open water, reveals the largest fish hiding in spectacular rock formations.

We make our way back to the boat satisfied by our findings, even though the sky has now clouded over. Tonight we barbecue on the back rail and watch the occasional local flights into the Beef Island airport that services Tortola. In the distance we can see masts in Trellis Bay, another popular anchorage. Marina Cay houses a small resort with a popular bar, but we are happy on the boat and settle down for sleep while the easterly trade winds, unlike our other nights, continue unabated.

Day 4 --Monday, February 13
Today we intend reaching the farthest point in the trip, the Virgin Gorda Sound, some 9-10 miles to the northeast. Our journey begins in the morning; after dropping our mooring line we pass north of Marina Cay and past Scrub Island, back into the Sir Francis Drake Channel. The breeze is fresh out of the east and skies are clear. Once in the Channel, we are still in the lee of the Dog Islands, West Dog, Great Dog, and George Dog, and the seas are relatively flat. A boat is off in the distance, anchored off a small island west of George Dog, Cockroach Island. We hope, for his sake, the island is not aptly named.

Beyond our bow lies Virgin Gorda, Columbus' "fat virgin." A discussion ensues: can we decipher her lying on her back? The guys can but the gals can't. Once beyond Great Dog the seas become choppier, but while the Grand Banks bobs, it is a dry boat. We guide our vessel between the farthest "Dog" --Seal Dogs and Mountain Point, the northwestern tip of Virgin Gorda. While we observe vessels passing north of Virgin Gorda and south of Mosquito Island --the island North of Virgin Gorda and northwest of the Virgin Gorda Sound --we heed the advice of La Vida and proceed to the entrance to the Sound which is north of Mosquito Island. This passage is obviously more heavily traveled and the better entrance for the uninitiated.

As we round Mosquito Rock and enter Virgin Gorda Sound, we decide to plant our hook at Drake's Anchorage, the first anchorage in the Sound, just behind the reef which runs southeast from Mosquito Rock. Judging by the reef and the color of the water, this must be a particularly good area to snorkel. According to our guidebook, there is a path to the top of Mosquito Island, a hike of 290' --an opportunity to collect photographs and stretch our sea legs.

Right behind the reef a Moor-Secure mooring awaits us and as the wind continues to be brisk we chance the $10 mooring. While Ray and Sue decide to snorkel the reef, we choose to lunch at the resort at Drake's Anchorage.

Afterwards, we debate which decision was best. The snorkeling was great! But the delicious fresh fish lunch was preceded by the infamous "pain killer," a Virgin Islands rum drink, the contents of which is a bit different from one establishment to another.

After lunch we climb into the dingy and make our way to the narrow passageway between Mosquito Island and Virgin Gorda, where we have been cautioned not to enter the Sound. We hear the snorkeling is excellent as there are several shoal areas, one on the southern tip of Mosquito Island and the other at Anquilla Point on Virgin Gorda. While this snorkeling area is similar to the others we have seen, as we have now so often encountered in our snorkeling exploits it is also distinctly different. Here the beauty consists more of unusual rock and coral formations than of fish. As I look up from my snorkeling activities, a 42' Bertram sportfish-is barreling through this shallow spot, passing from the Sound into the Sir Francis Drake Channel. I make a mental note of his route for our return trip.

After about an hour of snorkeling and sunning ourselves on the sandy beach adjacent to the reef on Mosquito Island, we return to the boat to ready ourselves to climb Mosquito Island. Everyone dons sneakers or topsiders. Apparently there are two main attractions on the hiking trail: the top and Honeymoon Beach. When we reach the fork in the road leading to each, we resolve to retrace our steps to the beach after reaching the top. The climb to the top is circular; the brush is heavy but the trail is well marked. With the kids and Ray leading the way and the rest of us huffing and puffing, top is finally reached.

The hike is certainly well worthwhile. From this point we can see some 20 miles in the distance --beyond Prickly Pear Island to Necker Island, which seems to have a solitary mansion on it, and then to the east, the famous "Bitter End" at the end of the Sound (where we hope to go tomorrow), and to the southeast Leverick Bay. The different colors of the water show the reefs. The day is partly cloudy but somewhat threatening.

We make our way down the mountain to the turn in the path that leads to Honeymoon Beach. The path to the beach becomes rockier and finally the beach can be seen some l00 yards away. We settle on a huge rock, some l00 feet above the pounding surf to admire the beauty. Making their way down among the rocks, Ray and Sue decide to swim at the beach while we return to the boat. Only some 200 yards from the Drake's Anchorage Resort, the heavens open up and a torrential downpour engulfs the island. Luckily for us, a little hut with a palm treetop is on the beach and this affords adequate protection.

Ann and I return to the Grand Banks to shower and get ready for dinner. Soon Ray and Sue appear on the beach and the boys run in on the dingy to pick them up at the Drake's Anchorage dock. Once everyone boards the dingy, the engine quits. Ray is quite handy with an engine, but after unsuccessfully working on the problem for about 15 minutes, rows back for tools. Apparently the problem has to do with one of the two off switches on the 8 Mariner; perhaps some of the wiring became wet. Clearly this is a problem for which we are not equipped, and therefore we decide to call La Vida in the morning.

That night, with everyone returned to the boat, we barbecue and settle down for the night by listening to a country music station which we picked up on FM. The wind continues out of the east, northeast. While we have no protection from the wind, the reef breaks the surf.

Day 5 --Tuesday, February 14
The first order of duty on this crystal blue Valentine's morning is to try to start the engine; several pulls at the cord, priming and pumping are to no avail. La Vida maintains a chase boat, but here we are at the farthest point from St. Thomas, and we had even hoped today to go to the Bitter End at the innermost point of the Sound. In any case, there is nothing to lose by calling, and we try to raise Virgin Islands Radio to patch through a collect call to La Vida. While VI Radio did not respond, a "freelance" service managed to put the call through.

La Vida advises that we are, indeed, too far for their chase boat, particularly in the 25 plus knot steady trade winds now blowing; however, they have an arrangement with Speedy's --a repair service --which is located near the Virgin Gorda Yacht Harbour and after some discussion we decide to go there rather than the Bitter End. Actually, we agree this is somewhat fortuitous as there are several benefits if we go into the marina. We suspect our water tanks need topping off, and we are now low on some supplies. Also, reaching the famous "Baths" is a short cab ride from the marina (rather than anchoring outside the Baths and risking a dingy landing at the tumultuous surf).

So, casting off our mooring and remembering where the Bertram had negotiated the shallow waters south of Mosquito Island, we follow that path out to the Sir Francis Drake Channel for the short trip to the Virgin Gorda Yacht Harbour (some 3-4 miles). It is rough in the Channel as the wind has been blowing for days now and its velocity seems to be increasing.

The entrance into the Yacht Harbour is well marked but narrow. In the marina we are directed to a slip. The wind is now gusty; another boat maneuvering nearby loses control and it is broadsided against the bow pulpit of a boat in a slip. Even though the Grand Banks is a heavy boat, and its keel makes it less susceptible to the wind than a planing powerboat, the unrelenting wind --now gusting to 35 knots --will have its way unless the boat is handled with precision. Ray is at the controls, aggressively managing the throttles in order to back the Grand Banks into the slip. This he does with skill.

After tying our lines, our first order of business is to call Speedy and decide whether our stay in the marina should be overnight or for only a few hours. Earlier in the morning the VHF had suggested --when another vessel had radioed the marina to confirm a reservation –that the Virgin Gorda Yacht Harbour is fully booked. However, since the day is windy, we opt for staying if at all possible. I was prepared to plead our case to the marina office, but that is not necessary; we are more than welcome --reservations or not. Price: 70 cents per foot plus $10 for power and another $10 if we intend to use our reverse cycle air conditioning. Given the wind, we hardly think that necessary.

While I make the booking, Ray contacts Speedy's service, and they soon arrive. Speedy and his helper climb into the dingy, prime the engine and pull the cord, and voila --it immediately starts. We explain the intermittent nature of the problem (wet wires can finally dry out) but the "oh, sure" look on their faces shows their disbelief. However, we are now certain it was a wet wire problem and so I tape the loose off switch, hoping to mitigate the problem.

At the marina there are several crewed charter boats. Speaking to one of the skippers, I learn that this winter in the BVIs has been one of the windiest and coolest in recent memory, and the next two days are forecasted to be even more unsettled; we are near a low-pressure area.
That afternoon we hire a car to take us to the Baths. The Baths, large boulders juxtaposed to one another which are washed by the sea, creating unusual pools, are billed as a must stop in Virgin Gorda. Adjacent is a white, sandy beach that is more crowded than other beaches we have visited. Indeed, this is a landmark not to be missed.

Our driver promptly meets us one hour and forty-five minutes later as promised, and we return to the boat –to shower, dress, and then seek some ice cream at the marina. A pint of Haagen-Das is some $5 but well worth it to a group suffering from severe ice cream depravation!

As evening falls we are particularly grateful to be at the marina. The low-pressure area has spun a squall packing winds of up to 50 knots, with a horizontal rain we rarely see at home. That night, our fourth on the boat, we agree to switch accommodations, Ann and I taking the vee berth and Ray and Sue the aft cabin.

Day 6 --Wednesday, February 15
We resolve to have an early start this morning, as this will be one of the longest legs of the trip, unfortunately, one that will bring us closer to St. Thomas and the end of our voyage. We estimate the run will be some 14-15 miles, but we will have a following sea and, who knows, our Grand Banks might get up on plane going downhill!

Without having more days to spend, we have to pass islands we now resolve to visit on the next trip --Ginger, Cooper, Salt, and Peter Island. Our destination is Norman Island, the island thought to be the setting of Robert Louis Stevenson's TREASURE ISLAND. There we will anchor in The Bight, an extremely large protected anchorage, and then explore the caves by dinghy (if our outboard works). The wind and our following seas have churned the Sir Francis Drake Channel which forces 'Soft Shoalders' to wallow. I try not to overcorrect on the steering to keep our ship on course.

As we pass Peter Island, we can see, first, Flanagan Island off of the eastern tip of St. John, and then Pelican Island, northwest of Norman Island. Leaving Pelican to the starboard and Rinedove Rock on the tip of Norman Island to the port, we enter the Bight. There are two main anchorages here, one in the northeastern corner and the other in the south-southwestern portion. While the former seems to be the most desirable, the other visiting yachtsmen seem to be very possessive of not only their space but adjoining space as well. Perhaps this is because the winds tend to swirl. Boats are facing every which way. We decide to anchor, instead, in the southern sector.

This anchorage houses a permanently moored old Baltic trader that has been converted to a restaurant and bar. We anchor upwind of this vessel, near the shore, dropping our two anchors. We let out more scope than usual, not only because we have the room but also the weather continues to be threatening and the VHF has warned the winds may increase tonight.
After lunch we ready ourselves for snorkeling. Off the port bow a large tortoise swims playfully. The snorkeling reveals many fish, including a barracuda, which swims alongside Ray and a stingray with a penchant for hovering at the bottom below our boat.

After snorkeling we shower and don cameras for our dingy trip to the caves off Treasure Point. As we leave the Bight, we are no longer in the lee of the island and the water is rougher. There are four major caves around the Point, with two of them large enough to accommodate our dingy. However, with the seas running the way they are, it will be difficult, if not downright dangerous, to enter the caves. Ray, the most dauntless of our crew, is determined, however, to take on this challenge under power. The sea is surging into the caves, and we time our entrance. With everyone fending off the walls of the cave, we make it.

Ray's VCR camera is going non-stop and my cameras are flashing away. Perhaps the excitement of the caves is the danger under these conditions: what if our outboard gives out again and our dingy is slammed against the rocks7

Of course, we manage to experience the caves unscathed and we emerge into the light with a great deal of pleasure. As we return to our boat, the occupants of the sailboat some 100 yards off our port had taken the opportunity to go about their business in the buff. Our 12-year old boys think it is particularly hilarious and, since our neighbors are well along in their years, we are hopeful that our reappearance will encourage them to return to a more unnatural state, which, thankfully, they do.

We shower and dress. The adults are going to dink over to the William Thornton, the restaurant/bar moored in the Bight --some 200 yards astern of us --for painkillers. Of course, as we dink, a brief squall erupts. We manage to stay mostly dry by making this a quick trip, our dinghy nearly getting up on plane despite carrying the four of us.

The bar certainly has ambiance: several yachtsmen are already soaking up the cheer. Ironically, the first couple we begin to talk with are also from New Canaan, CT., Ray and Sue’s hometown. After a few painkillers, we manage to return to our boat.

The weather forecast for this night is less than cheery: squalls with high winds. We eyeball our anchors. The Bruce is well buried and our Danforth is too. I let out addit1onal scope on the lines. By the time we begin our barbecue, a mini-squall is already beginning to move through so, in the dark, with rain pelting me, I do my best to grill our steaks.

That night the wind sounds like a freight train moving through the Bight. While everyone sleeps, I am up and down checking our position, making sure we are not dragging. Given the velocity, if we ever broke anchor there wouldn't be enough time to start our engines and gain control. Logic dictates I should go to sleep, as there is nothing I can do if such a disaster strikes. Who said boating is logical?

Day 7 --Thursday, February 16
Our last full day. Where to go? Our BVI cruising permit has expired so we decide to return to the American Virgins. We want to try a new anchorage in St. John, perhaps Hurricane Hole on the eastern end, which is just a short hop from Norman Island. However, Catch 22 is operative: we have heard along the way and La Vida has also cautioned us that as soon as we enter American waters we must go directly to Cruz Bay on the western end of St. John to go through American customs. Although, technically, this has always been the law, the continuing battle to eliminate drug traffic has dictated the enforcement of this requirement. Supposedly, if we try to anchor first, or to proceed directly to La Vida, ignoring clearance through Cruz Bay, the boat can be impounded, and we can be fined $2,500 and subject to imprisonment. We comply.

Thus, we will head first for Cruz Bay and then for the night return to our first stop, Christmas Cove, where we had enjoyed the snorkeling. We pass south of St. John and, once outside the lee of Norman Island we are open to the wind and a following sea. We thought the seas would build to a greater degree than they have; after all, the wind blew last night and even now is continuing at about 20 knots. However, the seas are no worse than the ones we encountered leaving the Virg1n Gorda Yacht Harbour.

Once back into the Pillsbury Sound, approaching from the southeast, we pick up Steven Cay outside Cruz Bay and, although it appears one can approach the harbor by passing between the Cay and St. John, the more prudent path is to go around the Cay, leaving it on the starboard. The current is running fairly strong here, and reefs and shoaling run from the Cay to St. John. Cruz Bay is a relatively small harbor, with little docking space and anchoring room. We understand that the Captain may present papers to American Customs, so Ray drops me off with the passports and birth certificates while he trolls around the harbor, waiting. Unfortunately, a ferry has just discharged its passengers and so I wait in line.

Finally reaching the desk, I am advised that ALL my crew MUST appear but since the ferry has now departed from the dock Ray can bring our Grand Banks to the customs dock. A not-too-pleasant, devoid-of-humor lady questions our documents, asking a "trick" question of one of the boys (Will he respond to his middle name?) Sue replies on his behalf and is castigated by the agent for answering the question.) I am then asked to fill out a form for our boat; lots of stamping ensues, and we are finally cleared. This all appears to be completely unnecessary, but we console ourselves with the knowledge that it did introduce us to another port and, the best part of all, no fees were involved.

Back into the Pillsbury Sound, leaving Current Rock to the starboard, we cut to the port and back into Christmas Cove, where our trip began. This afternoon we snorkel at Fish Cay off of Great St. James Island. The outside of the Cay is especially good for snorkeling. Tonight we do some preliminary packing, so we have as much time as possible in the morning for windsurfing, swimming and snorkeling. 'Soft Shoalders' must be back at La Vida by 12:00 noon, but, as we are only a half hour away, by attending to the packing now, we should have most of the morning free.

Day 8 --February 17
This is it. We are dejected. We have coffee in the early morning sun. Of course, it is one of the best mornings of the past several days. The wind is calmer, not a cloud in the sky. So we attend to our planned activities and, at 11:30 am we get underway. As requested by La Vida, we radio some 15 minutes from the dock. A chase boat meets us to pick up our dingy and to deposit a La Vida guide to help us back into a tight slip.

It is hot at the dock. La Vida goes over a checklist with us while we unload our things. They are turning the boat over for another charter that begins the following day. We now have to reimburse La Vida for the fuel. We used the engines, on the average, only a couple hours a day, but the generator was used more often than that. We guess it might be l00 gallons of fuel until we see the port tank topping off at a mere 30 gallons! Finally, only 61 total gallons were consumed in the entire trip. A trawler is indeed stingy with fuel.

A cab is called, and we begin our travail to Kennedy Airport. Next year, we resolve, we will do this again. Who said boaters can't remain best friends on one boat?

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Cut and Paste Culture

If you’ve landed on this entry because of searching a particular phrase, you might want to move on and read this link instead, a thought-provoking article from 21 March New York Times, "Texts without Context" by Michiko Kakutani, as my comments, ironically, are perhaps part of the very problem. Also, ironical is that while this article is about the Internet, it was published in a major traditional newspaper, and itself incorporates the ideas of eight books on the general topic (and subtitle of the article): “The Internet Mashes Up Everything We Know About Culture.”

So, at the risk of being part of “the problem” here are some highlights from Kakutani’s article:

* intellectual property and plagiarism that have become prominent in a world in which the Internet makes copying and recycling as simple as pressing a couple of buttons

* Web 2.0 is creating a “digital forest of mediocrity” and substituting ill-informed speculation for genuine expertise

* the Web have been accelerating certain trends already percolating through our culture — including the blurring of news and entertainment

* [we’ve become] a culture addicted to speed, drowning in data and overstimulated to the point where only sensationalism and willful hyperbole grab people’s attention.

* More people are impatient to cut to the chase, and they’re increasingly willing to take the imperfect but immediately available product over a more thoughtfully analyzed, carefully created one.

* technology is also turning us into a global water-cooler culture, with millions of people sending each other (via e-mail, text messages, tweets, YouTube links) gossip, rumors and the sort of amusing-entertaining-weird anecdotes and photographs they might once have shared with pals over a coffee break.

* the Internet’s nurturing of niche cultures is contributing to what Cass Sunstein calls “cyberbalkanization.” Individuals can design feeds and alerts from their favorite Web sites so that they get only the news they want, and with more and more opinion sites and specialized sites, it becomes easier and easier…for people “to avoid general-interest newspapers and magazines and to make choices that reflect their own predispositions.”

This cut and paste mentality has migrated to mass media as well, with reality TV shows replacing shows that have to be written from scratch, perfect “water cooler” fodder, and retread movies and Broadway shows becoming more prevalent. We’ve become a mass culture addicted to gossip, voyeurism, and extremist or conspiratorial views, abetted by the Internet

Ironically, the plethora of views that can be found on the Internet can lead to a self-fulfilling confirmation bias, reinforcing preconceived views and gathering momentum to the point where some need to proselytize their views. The cut and paste approach requires no thought other than to send broadcast emails to friends, and friends’ friends ad nauseum attaching, the conspiracy or the impending Armageddon theory du jour.

I have asked friends not to forward me such stuff responding to their first missive with my standard letter along the following lines: “As much as I enjoy hearing from you, I don't want my email address used for any broadcast emails, no matter what the subject or the degree of importance. On the other hand, I welcome personal emails and you know I will always respond in kind. Thanks for your understanding.” Usually, that’s it. Most such “friends” normally do not write personal emails.

Nonetheless, we have gone from a society where information was controlled by the few to the explosive democratization of information, where anyone can produce what passes for such and anyone can consume it as one wants. Beware of prophets bearing informational gifts for the self-delusional.

Spammer at Work
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You Get What You Pay For

Malcolm Gladwell’s “Priced to Sell; Is Free the Future?” in the recent issue of the New Yorker brings up fascinating issues, ones I dealt with my entire career – should “information” be “free.” Part of his article is a critique of Chris Anderson’s new book, Free: The Future of a Radical Price,”which argues that given the inexorable downward price pressure in technology, there is an inevitability that the content itself will become free. Anderson suggests that musicians learn to make their money “through touring, [and] merchandise sales” and newspaper writer retool to become coaches to unpaid writers who will work “for non-monetary rewards.” Fame, crumbs?

No doubt the newspaper industry is under siege, and is probably the most threatened during this Great Recession. But Gladwell’s scathing dissection of the YouTube “business model” points the way to the inevitability of two universes, a subscription model such as the successful Wall Street Journal, one that offers a level of professionalism or specialization people are willing to pay for and then the free one like YouTube, a commodity aimed at a mass market, supported either by advertising or by the provider being satisfied by cornering market share/eyeballs (Google in the case of YouTube).

The New York Times had attempted a subscription model for its Op-Ed Columnists, miscalculating that this is the unique value of the Times. That value, though, as with the Washington Post, is its gestalt and by charging for a part of the paper and not all is to devalue the sum total of its parts. Pay per view is not feasible but dedicated followers will pay for access to such well established icons.

Similarly, newspapers that do not have a national standing, have an opportunity to expand their coverage of local issues – to create the specialization needed to buttress their own brands. Of course, content is not the only issue, it is the subscription model itself. Giving print subscribers nearly free access to the on line version is one approach, particularly as technology such as the iPad become ubiquitous. The pricing of an online version (only) is the more critical issue for these publications, and that will be dependent on their own distinctive market position. The devil is in the details, but Gladwell’s article is a good reading.

Google Gall

Microsoft has been called the Darth Vader of the software world but watch out, Google is gaining ground. I’m pretty POed at Google as I’ve relied on Google Pages to host music links for my blog, a process which, for the non-techie, is complicated enough, without Google suddenly pulling the plug on me. For months I’ve been receiving an occasional email from Google alerting me to their intention to “move” my links to a new location, “Google Sites,” implying this will be automatic without any concerns on my part. Nuts, I thought, still another thing to learn, but OK, I’ve gone this far and I can do that.

However, this is not going to be automatic by any stretch of the imagination and, contrary to previous communications, this change will apparently render my music links inoperative. Here is their most recent email:

Dear Google Page Creator User:

As was previously announced, Google will soon be discontinuing operation of the Google Page Creator product. We will be migrating your Page Creator sites over to Google Sites so that they continue to operate with no work on your part. However, we've identified you as using Google Page Creator to host files that Sites doesn't support. We are writing to inform you that, as part of this migration, if you take no action to address this, your hosted files will likely break. If they are important then we suggest you move them to a different hosting service.

Contrary to what was posted in the blog post, the shut down and migration of Google Page Creator has been extended and will begin in a few weeks.

Thank you for your patience during this migration.

Sincerely,

The Google Sites Team

Google, Inc.

1600 Amphitheatre Parkway

Mountain View, CA 94043

You've received this mandatory service announcement email to update you about important changes to your Google Page Creator account.

Had I understood their intent months ago, I would have sought an alternative solution when I had broadband access. We’re now living on our boat and I’m dependent on a wireless dialup with slower speeds and bandwidth limitations. Therefore, these links will fail at a certain point. Thanks Google.

I’ve identified the music and their locations and here is a list, something I have to do anyway as a first step to address the matter:

Music: Annie’s Waltz. Location: Annie’s Waltz

Music: Ol’ Man River and Oh What a Beautiful Mornin’ Location He jes' keeps rollin’ along

Music: Not A Day Goes By Location: West Palm Beach Hosts Sondheim

Music: Smile Location: Music For Our Times

Music: Love is Here to Stay and Selections from Porgy and Bess Location: Practice Sessions

Once I find a solution to the problem Google is leaving me with, I will correct the links. In the meantime, they may not work. Sorry about that!

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