Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Monday, May 9, 2016
IT has Started
In Florida, the presidential election robo-calls have begun (put this number on your blocked call list if you are so inclined: 646-891-2992). It was Donald Trump calling! – his recording about the “emergency” of defeating Hillary Clinton and then another voice seeking contributions as, he claims, the Trump campaign is no longer self-funding (do they need funding at all as the mass media and the world of “Tweetledum and Tweetledee” seem not to get enough of him?). The follow up voice said that by contributing $25 you get a nice elect Trump sticker (guess the hat, “made in America” but mostly by Latinos, Mexicans, and Salvadoreños, is too expensive) and if you feel generous enough to contribute $1,000 you get a signed photograph of him “suitable for framing.” So it begins. Where do I puke?
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Specialization is for Insects
It’s
an anniversary of sorts as it’s been seven years since I’ve been writing this
blog, this memoir, this record of just one person’s views during that
period. I’ve been all over the place
with content, mostly starting with some personal history, some postings about
my former profession, publishing, on to politics, the economy, the market, lots
of postings on our travels and boating, with photographs, my affair with the
piano, including some videos, and, more lately, focusing on literature and
theatre. I’ve always considered myself a
generalist, jack of all trades and master of, maybe, a few. As such, blog traffic is less than specialist
blogs written by “experts”, but that’s OK.
I write for my own pleasure.
Recently I updated my profile to include a Robert Heinlein quote which I
think best explains my eclecticism: A human being should be able to change a
diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a
sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take
orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new
problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight
efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
While
I can and have done most of these things and could probably learn the rest
(would like to pass on butchering a hog – I don’t eat hogs anyhow), I mean eclecticism
on a more metaphoric basis. My interests
take me many places and these are reflected here. I just don’t write about one subject. I’m not an insect!
I
see that I’ve mostly avoided politics lately.
It’s not that I lost interest, but the tide of campaign money had risen
to such an extent that we, the voters, have been drowning in distorted
advertising, appealing to emotion, twisting the facts, and little about the
issues themselves. I have long contended
that political advertising should be banned and candidates should have rounds
of public debates, but debates in the purist sense of the word where they cannot
go to their well-rehearsed sound bites.
We learned more from the “debates” between Crist and Scott in the
Florida Governor’s race about their families than anything else, not to mention
whether a “fan” is an “electronic device.”
And the media was swamped by the endless political advertising and
mailers. The number of times I had to
hear or see the words “Charlie Crist, Slick Politician, Lousy Governor” was
sickening. All this $$ spent across America
to promote attack sound bites. I say
give it all to charity and make the politicians stick to the issues.
It
reminds me of the Manchurian Candidate. The queen of diamonds is beaten into one’s
brain, and you pull the right (no pun intended) lever on command (oops, we mostly don’t pull
levers anymore behind a curtain, but mark electronic ballots). Corporations are people! And that is the message of the mid-terms,
money prevails and people vote against their best interests. No doubt the Koch brothers are happy. They paid enough, along with the so-called
“dark money.”
Assault
weapon control, immigration reform, and righting fiscal policy are the really
big elephants in the legislative room.
No, these we avoid. The only good
news in the political arena is those endless robocalls, mailings, radio
messages and TV ads, all little subliminal negative messages are over for the
time being. Good riddance. They should be banned.
Our
political system is broken, at the election level and on the legislative level. The mid-term elections now turn over
control of both the House and Senate to Republicans. OK, it’s your turn!
© John Jonik
Friday, November 16, 2012
Whither Go Republicans...or Will They Just Wither?
A Guest Editorial by Roger Brickner
My high school teacher from years and years ago, a
Republican all his life, expressed his dismay at what has happened to his party
in an email to friends, and I have his permission to share it. Roger has
studied the American political scene for more than sixty years now, more than
25% of the lifetime of the Union itself.
His observations are truly first hand and astute....
The party wasn't
always like that. From 1861-1913 they lost to only one Democrat. Their major successful policies during that
period included, the winning of the Civil War, the ending of slavery, the
supremacy of the union, meaning the central federal government, the opening up
of western lands to pioneers, both domestic and immigrant (Homestead Act), the
opening up of the west by encouraging entrepreneurs to build the infrastructure
of the transcontinental railway, the land grants to states to establish free
state colleges (Morrill Act), the control of greedy capitalists who sought to
take at others expense (Trust Busting), they laid the ground and finally passed
the Suffrage Act of 1919 giving women the right to vote, they encouraged
Prohibition as a way to lessen the
effects of wife beating. (not all their
efforts succeeded). Almost all of these
measures, including the last two, were opposed
by the Democrats. This was a formula of beliefs which worked for
Republicans. Why has the party of today
strayed from these successful principles which spawned their own party?
These are questions
about their own party which they must answer. It was a party which combined
what was good for America with care and compassion with the people they ruled.
Why is it so different today? Part of it
is that their vision is blurred as they do not fully understand the origins
of their own party. Part of it is
because policies initiated in the late 1960's moved them away from their
roots. Pres. Nixon's "Southern
strategy" worked all too well. For 108 years the SOLID SOUTH held for the Democratic party. Since then the South has voted overwhelmingly
Republican. What an incredible reversal! It has transformed the Republican
party on racial and states' rights policies. It's earlier openness to the needs
of a diverse nation has become crabbed and resentful.
Given the ever
evolving aspect of America it will become more and more diverse ethnically. We
are a nation based on the concept that we are united as a democratic society,
not as a nation based on one ethnicity.
We are therefore not a carbon copy of how Europe views itself. Europe sees itself as countries of a single
cultural identity, in spite of their rather unsuccessful attempts to integrate
other cultures into their societies. To
illustrate, I ask: "when will England have a Pakistani ethnic become PM,
when will the French have an Algerian ethnic become their leader, and when will
Germany have a Turkish ethnic become their Chancellor? Don't hold your breath.
Unless and until
the Republican party...the party of my own proud heritage...realize who they
are and embraces in its heart ALL Americans, I foresee them becoming like the
old Whig party which shunned the issues of the day and allowed the great
Republican party to succeed it.
When Abraham
Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt can be found again in Republican circles, they
may once again become relevant today. Until that happens those great Republican
presidents are better reflected in the Democratic party.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
The People Have Spoken: Compromise!
It is amazing how close the anecdotal survey mentioned at the end of my last post came to predicting the 2.2% popular vote plurality for Obama
(only a tenth of a percent off). I
wonder how many professional polling pontificators were as accurate! Assume Florida is finally called for Obama,
and that seems most likely at this point, the final Electoral College
tabulation will be 332 for Obama vs. Romney's 206. Here the survey of 289 vs. 249 was too
pessimistic, although calling the winner.
This was no mandate for Obama, nor should it be. His
political campaign of 2008 underestimated the depths of the economic crisis and
the ability of a mere President to affect meaningful economic change. Too many promises were made, indeed. Perhaps
he has a more sober view of reality with the onset of his second term.
Looking at the results vs. 2008 clearly shows that the
American public is dissatisfied with the status quo. Obama's popular plurality in 2008 was 52.93%
or 2.63% more than 2012. That doesn't
sound like much except when you look at the absolute vote itself, with Obama
getting 9.6 million less votes than in 2008. Less people voted, showing the disenfranchisement
of the country as a whole. We are all
sick of the shenanigans of both parties.
But if Obama is listening, hopefully they are across the aisle
as well. Senate's Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell's gave an ominous post election speech saying, "They [the
American public] gave President Obama a second chance to fix the problems that
even he admits he failed to solve during his first four years in office, and
they preserved Republican control of the House of Representatives...Now it's
time for the president to propose solutions that actually have a chance of
passing the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a closely
divided Senate, step up to the plate on the challenges of the moment, and
deliver in a way that he did not in his first four years in office...To the
extent he wants to move to the political center, which is where the work gets
done in a divided government, we'll be there to meet him half way."
It sounds like more of the same. Will Senator McConnell and Representative Boehner
get the message as well? Boehner said "The
American people also made clear there's no mandate for raising tax rates."
Doesn't sound encouraging that Boehner is still drawing a line in the sand that
there can be no tax increases in any compromise. Another game of chicken with
the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling?
Any sane person knows this cannot be merely addressed with spending cuts.
There will have to be some tax
increases, a more progressive tax scale such as in the Clinton era. Our economy did fine then, why not now? Ok, guys, time to compromise. The election results seem to be shouting that
message.
Antidote du jour...
Labels:
Election,
John Boehner,
Mitch McConnell,
Obama,
Politics,
Taxes,
US Debt
Monday, November 5, 2012
Storm Aftermath and the Election
Hurricane Sandy left destruction in its wake,
underscoring the fragility of our coastlines and infrastructure. More on that, and its connection with the
upcoming election later, but first a follow up on my last post which was filled
with anxiety and speculation about Sandy's potential impact on our friends in
Connecticut, our boat club, and our boat. It's mostly bad news but a fortuitous wind change from
the east to the south just before the peak high tide during the storm made the
difference between disaster and catastrophe.
It meant that the water level in the parking lot where our club’s boats
are on the hard for the winter was "only" about 4-1/2 feet vs.,
potentially, 5-6. As for my own boat,
which has a draft of 3-3/4 feet and was blocked about a foot off the ground,
the peak tide slightly lifted it, enough for it to shift off of its keel
stands, but settling onto three of the four boat stands that hold the hard
chine of the hull. These stands are
mainly for stability, not to support the entire weight of the boat, the keel
stands doing the heavy support. So, in a
sense, my boat is hanging in mid air right now by those boat stands. This might put strain on the hull, but my
older, heavily built boat should come through as long as it can be reblocked
successfully. A crane has been brought
in to remove damaged boats so, hopefully, the travel lift can get to those that
need reblocking such as mine.
Unfortunately, many other boats in the yard were damaged
or totaled. Boats were strewn all over
Water Street of South Norwalk. And where
we used to live across the Norwalk River on Sylvester Court, boats were on the
street as well.
This is but a microcosm of the coast above south Jersey
where the storm came ashore, with places like Staten Island which is as low
lying, and directly exposed to the east, taking a direct hit. And now they say
there may be a Nor'easter in the cards for later this week which will just
exacerbate misery and increase the potential for more damage. We can only hope for the best.
Hurricanes seem to follow me wherever I might be,
sometimes the same storm threatening us both in Florida and Connecticut. The first hurricane I had to deal with in my
life of any significance was Hurricane Carol in 1954. My parents usually rented a cottage in Sag Harbor towards the end of each summer for a couple of weeks, a block from the
Peconic Bay. Carol drove us out
of our rental, and although a block away from the Bay, water was half way up
the first floor.
Then in 1985 Hurricane Gloria came to call on Connecticut
and although only a Cat. 1, the winds were from the southeast, driving water
and tremendous wave action up the Norwalk River where we had a smaller boat at
the time – at a different marina than
where we are now -- and between the heaving of the docks and the wind, boats
broke free, another boat's bow pulpit plowed through the hull into our v-berth,
but above the waterline so at least it didn't sink.
I anxiously watched Hurricane Bob form in 1991 as we were
spending a two weeks summer vacation at Block Island. A couple of days out from the storm a direct
hit seemed unavoidable, so unlike some friends who decided to "ride it
out" I packed up the boat and ran back to Norwalk, safe enough from the
effects of the storm. Boats were strewn
all of the shores of Block Island although my friend, John, who tied his boat
in a spider web maze of lines between the fixed docks of Payne’s, thankfully
escaped relatively unscathed.
http://lacunaemusing.blogspot.com/2009/08/block-island-days.html
The next memorable hurricane was a terrifying one, Floyd
which hit in September 1999. We had just
bought our home in Florida that prior June and Ann was living in the house,
while I lived on the boat in Connecticut, finishing out my job there until the
end of that year (we had already sold our home in CT). Satellite imagery made Floyd look like the
storm of the century, and it did grow to a Cat. 4, huge in size, heading
directly at Florida, causing massive evacuations on the coast. The traffic north was colossal. I was terrified for my wife who was in the
house alone (but with our dog at the time, Treat), and although it was
completely shuttered, everyone was screaming evacuate north! It seemed to me, amateur meteorologist extraordinaire,
that while the storm had the potential to hit us head on in the North Palm
Beach area, it was highly unlikely it would turn south or even have much of an
impact far south of us, so while I95 and the Turnpike were clogged with cars
going north, Ann and I decided it best for her to go south to a friend's home,
inland, about 40 miles to the south which turned out to be the right decision.
With hindsight, she could have stayed put in our home
as the storm took a sharp right hand turn up the coast and ironically had more
of an impact on me living on our boat in Norwalk, CT. I had to strip the enclosure and remove
everything from the decks, tie off the boat with double lines and springs, put
out extra fenders, etc., but I stayed on the boat through the storm and as it
was not a direct hit, I merely rocked and rolled, and was fine. Tides never even approached the levels of Sandy.
2004 was another lousy hurricane year with both Hurricane
Francis and Hurricane Jeanne striking Florida only some twenty miles north of
us, and causing some minor damage to our home, although it was completely
shuttered (mostly a roof tiles missing and plantings ruined). We were not in Florida for Francis but had
the pleasure of dealing with the aftermath of Jeanne with no power for days.
Luckily, our cousins owned a condo south of us so we occupied that while
waiting for power. And let's not forget
Hurricane Ivan that same year which dumped enormous amounts of rain, but was
less of a wind event where we are.
Then there was 2005's Hurricane Wilma which we rode out in
our home, all shuttered up again, a storm that was coming from the west and,
therefore, Florida folklore would have you believe would be merely a minor inconvenience. Unfortunately, the eye went over our house
and as the storm emerged over the Atlantic the back end picked up significant
strength, probably even a Cat. 2 or 3 at one point. Our home was groaning in the wind, the
sliding glass doors, although behind heavy steel shutters, bowing in and out
just from the storm’s barometric pressure change. Wilma also knocked out power
but, luckily, it turned cool, not the usual tropical air mass behind the storm,
and living for days without power was even a little fun, cooking on sterno
stoves, flash lights to read by, my piano a constant companion.
Finally, last year we dealt with Hurricane Irene, having to shutter up our house while living on the boat, expecting the worst for our home, which the storm completely missed, while we had to evacuate the boat!
Florida, although very vulnerable, deals with hurricanes
better than the northeast, especially one like Sandy that was both a hurricane
and a Nor'easter rolled into one, bringing in a cold air mass in its wake. It's one thing not to have power, and it’s
another to also have no heat in the cold.
Also, gas stations here are required to have generators to pump gas and
that is now a problem in the northeast with no such requirements. That will
change in the future, I'm sure.
And here is the connection to politics. Mayor Bloomberg
has it right to endorse President Obama even for no other reason than his
stance and record on global warming.
Most scientists are in agreement that hydrocarbon emissions are
responsible, not merely some grand cyclical weather factor. Can this be reversed short term? Of course not. But it is an issue that has even greater
consequences than our debt, and it is more difficult to solve than our man made
fiscal crisis.
Watching the rise of the tide as Hurricane Sandy past by
Florida, my neighbor, who has lived on our waterway for fifty years, remarked
that during those years he has witnessed higher high tides and higher low tides
until, finally, reaching the top of our sea wall during Sandy, submerging both
my docks. It took days for it to recede,
long after the storm was battering the northeast. Yes, this is merely anecdotal evidence, but
even our short thirteen year stay here seems to confirm the observation. How can we deny the existence of what we have
wrought and the need to address this terrible problem? How will not only
Congress, but world governments agree upon global warming mitigation
priorities?
This brings me to the importance of this election. It has been the most bitter election campaign
in my memory, not surprising given the polarization and subsequent action calcification
of our government. It also is the
consequence of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision which opened the
flood gates to Super PACs funded by corporations, wealthy individuals and
special interest groups. This has led to
the pollution of the airways, endless robot-calls and an inundation of direct
mail. In one week alone, these flyers
pictured here were sent to us.
Imagine the billions of dollars wasted on these
brainwashing attempts. Why do we permit
political advertising at all? There must
be other alternatives. But I guess they
work, just judging by the letters to the editor I read in the Palm Beach Post. Many simply regurgitate
the sputum of those ads. It is an
amazing circular process, garbage in, garbage out, and then making such
important decisions on highly emotionally charged accusations and innuendoes.
We voted early, the lines unbelievably lengthy. There are several proposed amendments to the
Florida State Constitution and the ballot is several pages long. GOP controlled
Florida had made the decision to make advance voting a much shorter period than
voters had in 2008. I can imagine how the lines will be tomorrow..
As to the outcome, here is an unscientific survey conducted
by my grade advisor from high school, Roger Brickner (yes, we are still in touch more than fifty years later). Politics has been his avocation since HE went
to high school, and he has accurately predicted presidential election outcomes
since he incorrectly picking Dewey in 1948.
He has an email following of
similar-minded friends and he canvassed their predictions for this election and, based
on that approach, Obama will win both the popular vote (by 2.1%) and the
electoral college (289 to 249).
Intrade, the popular prediction platform, where you can
"bet" on a winner, most recently has the probability of an Obama win
at about 65%.
At to my own "prediction," I think the
anti-Obama vitriol runs deep, and that has been effectively harvested by his
opponents. For that reason, and using
the anecdotal evidence of the ubiquitous Romney / West signs lining our own
road, I think the popular vote will be closer than 2.1%, with the distinct
possibility of Obama losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College.
But trying to quantify it is just guesswork.
PS: Last minute email from Roger (his own prediction, not
the average of his email followers):
I forgot to give the
grand summary... Guess I was so glad to complete all the states and all the
elections!
President electoral votes OBAMA 290 ROMNEY 248
popular vote OBAMA 51%
ROMNEY 48% OTHERS 1%
The Senate will be Dem
53, Rep. 45 Too close 2 (one held by a Rep., one held by a Dem.)
The House will be Rep. 235 Dem
200
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